Bitcoin is now in the historical bottoming window I’ve been watching. I still think prices could move lower, but waiting for the perfect bottom creates a risk of its own.
Historical Bitcoin cycles suggest we’re now in a period worth watching closely. I still think prices could move lower—but waiting for the perfect bottom creates a risk of its own.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about a pattern I’ve been watching across Bitcoin’s previous major market cycles.
In the last three major cycles, Bitcoin took roughly a year to move from its cycle peak to its eventual bear-market low. The circumstances were different each time, and there’s no rule saying the current cycle has to follow the same pattern.
But the consistency was interesting enough that I thought the 10-to-12-month period following the most recent peak was worth paying attention to.
We’re now in that window.
And my view hasn’t changed much.
I still think there’s a meaningful possibility that Bitcoin trades lower before a sustained recovery begins. The recent rally doesn’t convince me that the bear market is necessarily over.
At the same time, I think we’re at a point where the more useful question isn’t whether someone can predict the exact bottom.
It’s what you do when you believe you’re somewhere around it.
A Bottom Is Usually Easier to See in Hindsight
Everyone wants to buy at the bottom.
The problem is that bottoms rarely announce themselves.
When Bitcoin is falling and sentiment is terrible, there’s always a reason to believe it could fall further. If it finally turns around, there’s usually another reason to believe the recovery won’t last.
By the time everyone agrees that the bottom is behind us, the price may already be substantially higher.
That creates a fairly simple dilemma:
Buying now carries the risk of being early. Waiting carries the risk of being late.
Personally, I lean toward believing there is still more downside risk in the near term.
That doesn’t mean I think someone needs to sit completely on the sidelines waiting for one particular price.
Those are two different things.
How I Think About Accumulating in This Kind of Market
If it were my own money, I probably wouldn’t be deploying a large amount at current prices.
I would have been more interested in accumulating smaller tranches around $60,000 and below, while keeping a larger amount available in case the market moved substantially lower.
That’s my approach, though, and I’ve been through these cycles before.
I’m comfortable buying when sentiment is bad. I’m comfortable buying something and watching it fall further. And if I have a long-term thesis, I have the patience to wait for that thesis to play out.
Over the years, I’ve learned that this is much harder for most people than it sounds.
People will tell themselves they’re waiting for Bitcoin to get cheaper.
Then it gets cheaper.
The headlines become increasingly negative. People start questioning whether the cycle is different this time. Friends who were interested in buying a few months earlier suddenly want nothing to do with it.
The price they were waiting for finally arrives—and now they’re too scared to buy.
I’ve watched variations of this happen cycle after cycle.
That's why I don't think trying to copy my exact approach necessarily makes sense for everyone.
There’s a Difference Between the Bottom and the Bottoming Window
This distinction matters.
I’m not saying Bitcoin has reached its final bear-market low. In fact, my personal view is that we may see lower prices before a full recovery develops.
What I am saying is that, based on the historical cycle framework I've been following, we're in the period where I would expect a bottoming process to occur if this cycle continues to resemble previous ones.
A bottoming window can contain a lot of volatility.
There can be sharp rallies. There can be failed rallies. There can be another move lower. The eventual low might occur tomorrow, several weeks from now, or the historical pattern might fail altogether.
That's why I think it's more useful to think in terms of a window than a particular day or price.
If your underlying thesis is that Bitcoin will eventually emerge from this bear market and enter another sustained bull cycle, then prices available during the bottoming process may ultimately prove attractive in that larger context—even if today's price isn't the lowest price we see.
Of course, that thesis isn't guaranteed.
Another bull market is an expectation, not a certainty. If the thesis is wrong, the conclusion changes with it.
Why Gradual Accumulation Can Make Sense
For someone who believes in the longer-term thesis but doesn't have the experience—or the desire—to try to identify the final bottom, I think gradual accumulation is worth considering.
Instead of deciding that Bitcoin is either a “buy” or a “wait” today, you can spread that decision across time.
You might buy some and see the market fall further.
That's okay if you planned for it.
You might also discover that the market has already made its low and starts recovering sooner than you expected.
In that case, you've established some exposure rather than watching the market move away while waiting for a perfect entry that never came.
Gradual accumulation doesn't guarantee a better return. It doesn't protect you from losses, and it certainly doesn't make Bitcoin less volatile.
What it does is reduce how much of your outcome depends on getting one prediction exactly right.
And after nearly a decade of watching people buy and sell crypto, I think that's more important than it sounds.
Your Time Horizon Matters as Much as Your Entry Price
There’s another side of this discussion that I think gets overlooked.
Even if you're right about the larger cycle, you need to be able to stay invested long enough for that thesis to play out.
That could take years.
This connects directly to something I wrote about recently in my article on the investor mistakes I've seen repeat again and again.
I've dealt with customers who had tremendous conviction in Bitcoin but committed more money than their circumstances could support.
Then the market fell.
Eventually, some came back to sell—not necessarily because they had stopped believing in Bitcoin, but because they needed the money for living expenses.
That distinction matters.
A great entry price doesn't help much if you're forced to sell before the recovery you're waiting for arrives.
This is why I think position sizing is just as important as deciding whether Bitcoin is cheap.
If you're investing based on a thesis that could take several years to play out, the money you're investing needs to have a time horizon that can survive several years as well.
Money you may need for your mortgage, rent, family expenses or other obligations shouldn't depend on Bitcoin recovering according to your preferred timetable.
There Are Really Two Things You Can't Know
People tend to focus almost entirely on price:
How low will Bitcoin go?
But there's another unknown that's just as important:
How long will it take?
We don't know the exact price at which this bear market will bottom.
And even if the long-term thesis is correct, we don't know exactly when the next sustained bull market will begin or how long it will take to develop.
So there are really two uncertainties to manage:
Price and time.
A good strategy has to be able to survive both.
That means not allocating so much that another large decline causes you to panic.
It means not investing money you'll need if the recovery takes longer than expected.
And it means recognizing that waiting for absolute certainty creates its own risk.
What I’m Watching From Here
My view today is fairly straightforward.
I think we’re in the broader bottoming window I've been watching.
I also think there is still meaningful downside risk, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin trade lower before a sustained recovery.
Those views aren't contradictory.
Trying to predict the exact low is very different from recognizing that we may be in a part of the cycle where prices become increasingly interesting for someone with a multi-year Bitcoin thesis.
Personally, I would keep substantial capital available for lower prices.
For many investors, however, gradually accumulating through this period may be more realistic than waiting for the moment of maximum fear and assuming they'll have the confidence to deploy everything when it arrives.
Because I've watched what happens when that moment comes.
Buying Bitcoin when everyone is excited about it is easy.
Buying it when the market looks terrible is much harder.
Final Thought
I don't know exactly where Bitcoin will bottom. I have my view, and right now I still think there's a good chance we see lower prices before a full recovery.
But I've also been through enough cycles to know that waiting for the perfect entry sounds much easier when the market is calm than when prices are falling and everyone is afraid.
If your long-term thesis on Bitcoin hasn't changed, I think we're in a period worth paying attention to. For some people, that will mean starting to accumulate gradually. Others may choose to keep more capital available for lower prices.
Either way, the important part is giving yourself enough room—both financially and emotionally—to stay with your plan if the market doesn't immediately go your way.
You don't need to buy the exact bottom. You need a strategy you can actually stick with.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects the author's personal observations and opinions. It does not constitute investment, financial, tax or legal advice. Crypto assets are volatile and involve substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past market cycles do not guarantee future results. Consider your own financial circumstances and, where appropriate, seek advice from a qualified professional.
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